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Upwards revisions to expectations for manufacturing sector pushes up Q3 nowcast

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The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q2 2020 weakened marginally to -8.00% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with -7.97% during the week ending July 17th.

The EIU’s nowcast model predicts US GDP to expand by 2.91% (quarter-on-quarter) in Q3 2020, improving from the nowcast of 2.17% the week before.

  • Building permits for private housing data in June was revised higher as record-low mortgage rates continued to support recovery in housing markets.

  • Flash estimates, for July, of manufacturing and services PMI improved further — but were nevertheless below model projections.

  • Unemployment claims continued to remain at elevated levels highlighting that significant risk to economic recovery still remains.

  • To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

Data releases (last week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious data
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Jul (20’)1416.001408.00
New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Actual] (SAAR, Thous.Units)Jun (20’)1258.001216.00
US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Actual] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion)Jul (20’)49.6147.93
US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Actual] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion)Jul (20’)51.2949.76

Data releases (current week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease Date
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Jun (20′)27th July 2020
Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)27th July 2020
Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)27th July 2020
Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (SA, 1985=100)Jul (20’)28th July 2020
Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Present Situation (SA, 1985=100)Jul (20’)28th July 2020
Conference Board: Consumer Expectations (SA, 1985=100)Jul (20’)28th July 2020
Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)29th July 2020
Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)29th July 2020
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Jul (20’)30th July 2020
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Jul (20’)31th July 2020
University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Jul (20’)31th July 2020
University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Jul (20’)31th July 2020
Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)Jun (20’)31th July 2020
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)Jun (20’)31th July 2020
MNI-Chicago Report: Business Barometer Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Growth)Jul (20’)31th July 2020

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