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Weaker than expected Q2 data pushes up Q3 growth nowcast

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  • The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q2 2020 weakened to -8.55% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with -8.00% during the week ending July 24th.

  • The advanced estimate of Q2 2020 GDP growth released last week by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis stood at -9.48% (quarter-on-quarter).

The EIU’s nowcast model predicts US GDP to expand by 3.06% (quarter-on-quarter) in Q3 2020, improving from the nowcast of 2.91% the week before.

  • Personal disposable incomes declined by 1.78% (month-on-month); meanwhile, consumer expenditure increased by 5.24% (month-on-month) compared with May.

  • Goods exports increased in June (month-on-month) but remained below pre-pandemic levels.

  • Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods improved in the month of June by 7.26% (month-on-month) in comparison to May.

  • Consumer confidence weakened in July along with downward revisions in University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment indicators for the month.

  • Among the releases last week, the Business Barometer for Chicago was the only indicator seeing improvement in July, beating market expectations.

  • To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

Data releases (last week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious data
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)206873.00192862.00
Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)425284.00424899.00
Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)1092421.001107840.00
Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (SA, 1985=100)Jul (20’)92.6098.30
Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Present Situation (SA, 1985=100)Jul (20’)94.2086.70
Conference Board: Consumer Expectations (SA, 1985=100)Jul (20’)91.50106.10
Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)102592.790068.9
Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)173233.9165326.7
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Jul (20’)1434.001408.00
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Jul (20’)72.5078.10
University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Jul (20’)82.8087.10
University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Jul (20’)65.9072.30
Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)Jun (20’)16030.5016321.10
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)Jun (20’)12517.5011894.50
MNI-Chicago Report: Business Barometer Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Growth)Jul (20’)51.9036.60

Data releases (current week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease Date
ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Expand)Jul (20’)3rd Aug 2020
US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Actual] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion)Jul (20’)3rd Aug 2020
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)4th Aug 2020
Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)4th Aug 2020
Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)4th Aug 2020
ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (SA Change, Thous.)Jul (20’)5th Aug 2020
ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing)Jul (20’)5th Aug 2020
Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual](SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)5th Aug 2020
Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual](SA, Mil.$)Jun (20’)5th Aug 2020
US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index[Actual] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion)Jul (20’)5th Aug 2020
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Jul (20’)6th Aug 2020
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls excluding the Effect of Strikes (SA, Thous)Jul (20’)7th Aug 2020

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