Biden takes lead as final votes are counted

The Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, has taken a narrow lead of 0.7% in both Wisconsin and Michigan. With 97% and 92% of the vote counted in those states respectively, Mr Biden appears increasingly likely to hold on to these margins.

The results of in-person votes initially appeared to give Donald Trump, the president, an early edge. However, this is now evaporating as mail-in ballots are being counted (these tend to favour Democrats). Barring a surprise in the final votes to be counted, we expect Mr Biden to win both of these states—adding a further 16 Electoral College votes to his tally.

Assuming that Mr Biden holds on to his lead in Arizona, where he currently leads by 3.4 percentage points, and in Nevada, where he leads by a narrower 0.6 points, he will have won the presidential election with a total of 270 electoral votes. However, only 86% of the vote has been counted in these two states, which leaves some room for change, particularly in Nevada.

Meanwhile Mr Trump has managed to stay ahead in North Carolina (where he currently leads by 1.4 percentage points, with 95% of the vote counted). This will be a difficult gap for Mr Biden to close, even if the remaining postal votes to be counted benefit him more than Mr Trump. The president has also managed to keep his narrow lead in Georgia, of 2.2 percentage points currently. About 92% of the vote has been counted here, however, leaving slightly more wiggle room for Mr Biden to make up lost ground as postal votes from urban districts of the capital, Atlanta, are counted.

Mr Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania has narrowed from 11.5 percentage points earlier in the day to 8.7 percentage points at 12:30 pm EST. Just 79% of the vote has been counted, and Pennsylvania has extended the period for counting postal votes by three days—meaning that this race is still too close to call.

However, even if Mr Trump carries Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, this would only get him to 268 electoral votes. He would still need to pull off an upset in either Nevada or Arizona to get the 270 votes needed to win. We do not consider this likely, given how close these races are. Nonetheless, this is Mr Trump’s only remaining path to re-election.