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On April 23rd Azerbaijani forces established a checkpoint on the new route of the Lachin corridor near the border with Armenia, the only road connecting Armenia to Nagorny Karabakh. Azerbaijan justified the move by claiming that Armenians had been shipping military equipment on the road, and that the road passed through their territory and so they had a right to establish checkpoints on it. Armenia appealed to Russia, whose peacekeepers are supposed to maintain security on the road, but the response thus far from Moscow has been muted.

The move has increased the blockade of Nagorny Karabakh, which has already been ongoing since mid-December when environmental activists blocked the Lachin corridor. A checkpoint on the border would give Azerbaijan the ability to stop any cars travelling between Armenia and Nagorny Karabakh.

Azerbaijan has been demanding to be able to set up such a checkpoint for some months now, as it seeks to tighten its control over Nagorny Karabakh and eventually exercise its full authority in the region. It was unclear how it would be able to do that without risking a confrontation with the Russian peacekeepers, who are supposed to be maintaining the road’s security. Although details are still scarce about how the checkpoint was established, it seems to have happened without any sort of clash with the Russian forces—but that, in turn, has raised questions about the Russians’ passivity. The ceasefire agreement that ended the 2020 war tasked the Russian peacekeeping contingent with “control” over the road and ensuring safe passage of people and goods along it.

When Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did finally react—about 24 hours after news of the new checkpoint broke—it issued a tepid statement that the original provisions of the ceasefire should be maintained. This will probably further undermine Armenian trust in its ostensible security guarantors, who have repeatedly proven unable or unwilling to act assertively in Nagorny Karabakh. Tension in the Armenian-Russian alliance has been high, and this will only exacerbate matters. 

Setting up this new checkpoint will be difficult to reverse as Azerbaijan seeks control over Nagorny Karabakh. The move is in line with our view that Azerbaijan will continue to increase pressure on Armenia with the intent to force it to accept its demands and have Armenia recognise its sovereignty over all of Nagorny Karabakh, including parts still governed by an Armenian separatist government in Stepanakert. On top of the humanitarian consequences, such a move will probably further destabilise Armenian politics, as the current authorities will be seen as handing over to the “enemy” what has been seen as an integral part of the Armenian homeland.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the economic, political and policy outlook for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.